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So it seems Ubisoft are pretty hush hush about these things, most games would have a wiki which states the exact rates, as communicated by the devs, as well as all of the items that are available from the packs. That being said, in some ways, not knowing does make opening packs that bit more exciting, so before I ruin your dreams like a kid at Christmas who has just seen their dad drunkenly fall into the Christmas tree, having smashing 'Santas' mince pies and brandy, look away now!

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The last good post I saw about this was two years ago, so I've done an updated calculation based on YouTubers pack openings of over 5000 packs, and here are the results:

Unfortunately I was fairly limited to YouTubers who actually included counts in their videos, so as much as people like Marley are entertaining to watch, I couldn't be bothered counting all of his packs. This also means that I only have two YouTubers for the current season (Void Edge), which is a shame as I wanted to see if the % chances changed drastically from season to season, as there are some items which are 'seasonal' in packs e.g. there's a bit of a space theme during Void Edge. Based on the two I have included, there does not seem to be much change to note however.

So how does this break down?

So in total I've included 5850 packs from YouTubers/Streamers, which breaks down to the above % chances of a specific rarity. The right-hand column is just a demonstrative, you have 100 packs, here is how many of each rarity to expect.

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I did try to break this down further to work out what the % chance of getting a specific black ice skin would be, however to work this out I need to know how many Purple's are actually available in Alpha Packs.

A rough, albeit optimistic, calculation would be to assume 4 purples per operator, 1 head, 1 body, 2 weapon. This is rough, some operators have more, some less, some share weapons etc. – Currently 54 operators – this brings us up to 216 purples available and then I'll round it to 250 to include charms.

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There are 39 black ice skins available I believe (I might be one or two short), and no new weapons post 'Operation Black Ice' are getting these skins, which means with each operation and additional purples added to Alpha Packs, Black Ice actually gets rarer to land on.

39 Black Ice Skins = 16% chance of getting one, if you land on a purple pack (so 12% of a Purple Pack, then 16% that Purple will be a Black Ice) This means your overall chance of getting a Black Ice would be 1.88%, so for every 100 packs you open, you would likely land on a single Black Ice (as I say, this is an optimistic assumption that a. there's only 250 purples available and b. there are not hidden rarity mechanics behind the packs, meaning that we are assuming every single purple has an equal chance of dropping)

To break this down further, it would be 12% chance of purple > 16% chance of Black Ice (1.88% overall) > 3% chance of a specific Black Ice skin (0.05% overall)

So if you are hunting a specific Black Ice skin, you have a 0.05% chance your pack will contain it, which equates to 1 in 2000

EDIT: As has been pointed out, 250 might be too optimistic for amount of Purps in packs, so I've done the calculation for 500 purps too (I think it's likely somewhere between the two figures)

500 Purps results in Black Ice becoming 8% chance once you hit purp, or just 0.94% per pack (still roughly 1 in 100 however) – Specific Black Ice remains 3% chance once you hit black ice, but does mean that the overall chance drops to just 0.02%, which is 1 in 5000 chance of getting a specific Black Ice

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TLDR:

Quarantine got me like ooooh ahhh
22% chance of a blue pack, 12% chance of a purple pack, 3% chance of a gold pack
1.88% chance of a black ice, 0.05% (1 in 2000) chance of a specific black ice (based on 250 purps available) | EDIT: 0.94% chance of a black ice, 0.02% (1 in 5000) chance of a specific black ice (based on 500 purps available) | This assumes all purples have the same chance, and there are no hidden rarity mechanics within each rarity level

Note: The reason I did all of this was because I was saving up 100 packs for my own video, and wanted to limit my expectations. They are now even lower.

Source: Original link

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© Post 'Updated Alpha Pack Rarity Rates (04/2020 – Void Edge) + Black Ice Skin Rates' for game Tom Clancy’s Rainbow Six Siege.

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Top 15 NEW Games of 2020 [FIRST HALF]

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2020 has a ton to look forward to..in the video gaming world. Here are fifteen games we're looking forward to in the first half of 2020.

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